My last blog focused on a positive aspect of the current season: Wimbledon’s ability keep leads in games. Naturally, this was quickly followed by dropping two points after going ahead versus Morecambe. I apologise for that. But overall, it’s still a positive trend.
Less positive is what happens when the Dons go behind in games. Wimbledon have conceded the first goal in 12 of the 33 league games played so far this season. Of those 12, they have won 1, drawn 2, and lost the remaining 9. Two of the ‘non-defeats’ were occasions where the Dons went behind in the first five minutes of games – against Tranmere and Forest Green – and were able to hit back quickly. But more typically the Dons have had no answer after going behind, often not even looking likely to get back into games.
According to TransferMarkt, Wimbledon rank joint 15th in League 2 for points won from losing positions. The Dons’ total of 8 points includes the Colchester home game when they first went ahead before briefly falling behind. Crewe top this particular table with an impressive 20 points won from losing positions: of the 17 times they have fallen behind, they have won 5 times and drawn the same number.
In this blog, I’ll speculate on some of the reasons why the Dons seem to struggle to fight back after falling behind in games.
Crucial missed chances in low-margin games
League 2 has been a bit wild this season. Six clubs have already seen more than 100 goals scored or conceded in their games (Notts County top that list with 124 – almost 4 per game). There’s been a 9-0, an 8-0, two 5 all draws, and a 5-4. Wimbledon contributed a 5-3 in the win over Colchester, but on the whole their games have been lower scoring than most in League 2.
In fact, only games involving Gillingham (70) and Bradford (80) have seen fewer goals than the 85 scored/conceded in Wimbledon matches this season. That means Dons’ matches are often low-margin, cagey affairs. I think this is partly by design: Jackson and Skiverton often talk about the importance of having control in games, having a good defensive shape, and defending from the front.
Preventing your games from becoming too open is no bad thing. But it does mean that matches will often be decided by a goal either way, so you need to take your chances when you get them. That’s perhaps especially important for this season’s Wimbledon, who appear much more comfortable leading than chasing games.
The sad reality here is the the Dons haven’t been especially good at taking their chances over most of the season. According to FotMob, Wimbledon have missed 50 big chances this season, the joint 2nd highest in League 2. The Dons also rank 4th in League 2 for expected goals scored, but only 12th for actual goals scored (which even a geeky statto type like me knows is the more important statistic).
There has been evidence of this failure to convert chances in plenty of matches this season, including recently. I’d say the Dons had the better of matches with Crawley (H), Wrexham (A), Gillingham (A), Morecambe (A) and Bradford (H) while at 0-0. But chances were missed, opponents scored, and the Dons couldn’t find a way back into the games.
(Still) lack of quality squad depth?
Johnnie Jackson commented in the recent Q&A with fans that he was a lot happier with his bench options this season. He said he could look round and see players who could impact games, which wasn’t always the case last season. There have certainly been moments when players have come off the bench to have an impact – two examples being the League Cup win over Coventry, and the dramatic late victory over Mansfield.
But on the whole, I’m not fully convinced that this squad offers quality depth. I’ve thought for most of the season that the Dons’ strongest XI was highly competitive, but there was usually quite a big drop-off between the starters and back-up players. It’s notable that Jackson receives criticism both for not making subs, and for making subs that weaken the team.
Perhaps there are different changes he could make at times, but it’s not easy to balance keeping the strongest players on the pitch (even if they are tiring) versus bringing on replacements who are often not at the same level. There’s no doubt the summer 2023 recruitment strengthened the Dons’ starting XI, but another summer window may be needed to add the necessary quality squad depth.
Need for more adventurous sub options?
Even allowing for the squad limitations, I do wonder if Jackson’s choice of subs is a little ‘safe’ at times. Terry Skiverton talked at the Q&A about wanting experienced heads on the bench, but, when trailing in games, sometimes the Dons need a bit more energy or spark than those players can offer.
There are injuries to consider now, but even when the Dons were at full-strength, most weeks the bench would include Pearce, Brown, Ball, Pell and Davison. They are all reliable players, but unlikely to offer something different when the Dons need to chase a game and change things up. Add Tzenev to the bench, and it doesn’t leave much space for more maverick options. O’Toole has appeared on recent benches, but again is unlikely to offer something unexpected at this stage of his career (the weird pinged pass out of play late on versus Morecambe notwithstanding).
I’d personally like to see a slightly bolder make up on the bench – more focused on players that can offer an alternative approach and get the Dons back in games when they are trailing. Sasu seems an ideal bench option, certainly a player that a tiring full-back would not relish facing. But he’s missed out in recent matches. When Ogundere starts, I also think Biler is worth a spot on the bench. As well as covering for possible injuries to either full-back, he offers much going forward, and the Dons often look a more coherent attacking team when he plays. That may be at the expense at some defensive solidity, but sometimes you need to take those risks when trailing in games.
Still an area for Jackson to develop?
I’m firmly of the opinion that Jackson has developed as a manager, and deserves his contract extension. He’s shown that he can adapt tactics to good effect, one example being the switch of formation at half-time versus Swindon. But perhaps the ability to make ‘in-play’ changes of shape or approach is an area in need of some improvement.
It is true that Jackson rarely makes changes of formation within games. I think this is partly deliberate, and the likely reasoning is understandable. This has been a well-drilled Dons team all-season, where players know their roles and fit together into a coherent unit. Mid-game changes can disrupt this and reduce the collective solidity. But it can make your attacking play predictable and sometimes lead to square pegs in round holes, as versus Crawley when Curtis and Gordon were seemingly initially asked to play up front, to avoid disrupting the formation.
An in-game change of shape can also surprise and disrupt the opposition, presenting them with new challenges, and that’s sometimes needed when you are chasing games. I do think it would be a useful addition to the Dons’ armoury, if Jackson can find a way to introduce a bit more in-game unpredictability while still keep a satisfactory level of control and organisation.
Plough Lane By Numbers 