The victory over Salford means Wimbledon retain a sniff of the playoffs going into their final three games. It’s a scenario that I’m sure most Dons’ fans would have accepted at the start of the season, even if a top-7 finish looks an outside shot.
Much of the reason for the improvement this season is down to the Dons’ strong defence. Their 16 clean sheets is the joint best in the division (tied with Stockport). Only Stockport (41) and Mansfield (43) have conceded fewer goals than Wimbledon’s tally of 44. Perhaps most impressively, the strong defensive performance was retained during the period the Dons’ two defensive lynchpins, Johnson and Lewis, were out injured. The makeshift back three of Balmer, O’Toole and Brown conceded only 3 goals in their 6 games together, including a run of 4 consecutive clean sheets.
At the other end of the pitch it’s a different story, with the Dons struggling for goals, especially since Al-Hamadi’s departure. Over the last 6 games, only Crewe have scored fewer than Wimbledon’s 5 goals. The return of 8 goals in the last 10 games is joint lowest in League 2. And even over a longer period, 20 games, only Forest Green (19) have scored fewer than the Dons’ 20 goals. It’s actually quite impressive to still be in the playoff mix with such a paltry goals return.
| Dons goals | Goals per game | League 2 rank | |
| Last 6 games | 5 | 0.83 | = 20th |
| Last 10 games | 8 | 0.80 | = 21st |
| Last 20 games | 20 | 1.00 | = 22nd |
In the rest of this blog, I look at some of the stats behind Wimbledon’s scoring troubles.
Reliance on elite individuals
Johnnie Jackson has been able to call on two elite (for the level) attacking players during a large part of his time in charge: Assal and Al-Hamadi. Both players were a step or two above the level and presented considerable challenges for League 2 defenders. It’s notable, if unsurprising, that Wimbledon’s goal return was far better with Assal or Al-Hamadi playing, compared to games without either of them.
| Games | Goals | Goals per game | |
| With Assal starting | 20 | 26 | 1.30 |
| With Al-Hamadi starting | 37 | 57 | 1.54 |
| With neither starting | 32 | 21 | 0.66 |
This certainly falls into the stating the bleedin’ obvious category of football statistics. Lose your best attacking players, score fewer goals. It’s hardly unexpected. But I do think a couple of points are worth commenting on.
The first is just how poor the goal return has been without Assal or Al-Hamadi in the starting line-up, which is now based on a pretty big sample size. Across the 32 games where this applies, the Dons have scored 21 goals – an average of 2 goals in every 3 games. If you apply that rate to a 46 game season, it adds to 30 goals. To put that in perspective, the lowest goal return of any team in the current League 2 season (with games still to play) is Gillingham’s 40 goals. Only two teams in the past four League 2 seasons have scored fewer than 30 goals – Scunthorpe and Southend, who both scored 29 in relegation seasons. Wimbledon have also failed to score in over half of these 32 games (17) and never once since Jackson took over have scored more than 2 goals in a game without Assal or Al-Hamadi in the line-up.
The other point to make is that it’s unlikely Wimbledon will have an attacking player at the level of Assal or Al-Hamadi next season. The transfer fees for each player were among the highest ever received by a League 2 club. They were rare talents at this level that are near impossible to replace, even with the effective recruitment operation now in place at the club. There is a need to develop a more coherent and collective attacking threat when unable to call on individuals that are too good for the level.
(As a quick aside, it’s notable that the Dons’ points-per-game return is not hugely different while Al-Hamadi was here compared with after his departure. Following Ali’s last game (away at Forest Green), the Dons averaged 1.56 points per game. Their average across the season following the Salford game is 1.44. There is a drop-off, but perhaps not as much as might be expected given the reduction in goals and broader attacking threat. This points to just how good the defence has been in the second half of the season – and may also suggest that a higher points haul could or should have been achieved while Al-Hamadi was here).
Importance of Curtis
Ronan Curtis has been the man to deliver big moments for the Dons in the post-Ali era. His all-round game is perhaps not yet at the level it was for Portsmouth prior to his injury, but he’s still made a substantial contribution with crucial goals. And like Assal and Al-Hamadi before him, the Dons have struggled for goals without Curtis on the pitch.
Bugiel’s winner against Salford was the first goal the Dons have scored without Curtis on the pitch since he made his debut against Mansfield on 27 January. Prior to that goal, they had played for 535 minutes without Curtis on the pitch – the equivalent of around 6 full matches – without a single goal.
| Minutes | Goals | Minutes per goal | |
| With Curtis | 818 | 11 | 74 |
| Without Curtis | 555 | 1 | 555 |
Low margin games make first goal crucial
A related trend in Wimbledon’s season has been the importance of the first goal. Put simply, if Wimbledon score first, they usually win (in contrast with recent seasons), and if they concede first, they usually lose.
It’s clear that Jackson sets up his team with an emphasis on keeping things tight and not giving anything away. To some extent, that seems a sensible policy when you are struggling for goals at the other end. Creating low-chance/low-margin matches by design means the Dons are rarely out of games. If they can score first, they can usually be relied on to grind out the win, such is the strength of the Dons’ defence. But conversely, if they concede first, they find it extremely difficult to get back into games.
Wimbledon’s form has been pretty steady over the season. They have never lost more than 2 consecutive games, but equally only won 3 games in a row once. That’s in contrast with the 2015-16 promotion campaign, when the Dons won 5 consecutive games at the end of the season, and 3 in a row on three separate occasions. It’s very hard to sustain a promotion challenge without a long winning run at some point in the season. But equally, it’s hard to sustain a winning run when you almost always rely on winning tight, low-margin games, and usually only after scoring first.
Playing to Kelly’s strengths
Josh Kelly was given the unenviable task of replacing Al-Hamadi. Despite his lack of a goal so far, he has often performed well, and come agonisingly close to scoring on a few occasions.
I assume Jackson had planned to mostly use Kelly in partnership with Bugiel up front, but this has actually happened quite rarely. The Salford game was the first time they had played together in a front 2 since Doncaster away in late February. In between those games, Kelly has either played as a wide forward, as a lone central striker in place of Bugiel (a particularly tough gig), or been on the bench. Like any striker, I think Kelly would benefit from Bugiel’s physicality and work rate alongside him, and probably get more scoring chances as a result.
It’s also clear that the Dons cannot rely on Kelly to create goals out of nothing in the same way they could with Al-Hamadi. With Ali, a percentage channel ball from a centre back could become a one-on-one with the ‘keeper seconds later, such was his pace and power. That’s not a criticism of Kelly, as no other forward in League 2 can offer what Al-Hamadi did. But to see the best of Kelly there may be a need to need to build up in a slightly different way.
Looking ahead
Let’s assume for now that the Dons don’t achieve an unlikely promotion this season, and start the next campaign in League 2. I think there will be a general expectation of improvement; not winning the league, but maybe more in the middle of the playoff mix than at the edge of it.
And there is cause for optimism. The squad is in far better shape than this time last season, and probably requires a summer of evolution rather than revolution. It’s less about building a new team this time and more about adding some goals to an otherwise solid base. That’s easier said than done though, since just about every other club in the Football League will also be after goalscorers, and demand will certainly outstrip supply.
Of course, we all hope that Craig Cope can uncover another gem like Al-Hamadi in the summer, but it’s a tall order, and perhaps not entirely realistic. The challenge for Jackson may therefore be to find a way to add the goals needed for a more sustained promotion push with a forward line that may be closer to average for the level.
There are fans who question whether Jackson can achieve this improvement. It’s not an entirely unreasonable view, since the Dons have rarely looked a fluid collective attacking force over the past two seasons. But there have been improvements elsewhere. This time last year, the team were shipping plenty of goals, and seemed incapable of holding leads in games. These issues have been resolved to an impressive extent. The next area for improvement could not be clearer – and Jackson certainly deserves the opportunity to address it.
Plough Lane By Numbers 